By Charles H. Feinstein, Mark Thomas
This authoritative consultant to using quantitative tools is designed for use because the uncomplicated textual content for graduate classes, and is usually appropriate for upper-level scholars. Making background count number is written by way of senior financial historians with substantial overseas educating adventure. The textual content is obviously illustrated with various tables, graphs and diagrams, prime the scholar in the course of the a number of key subject matters. it really is supported by means of 5 particular old data-sets, to be had electronically in downloadable and manipulable shape.
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Additional info for Making History Count: A Primer in Quantitative Methods for Historians
1 1,172 1,134 1,151 1,253 1,465 1,175 1,224 1,416 1,389 1,516 1,717 1,491 1,159 1,192 1,256 1,297 1,668 1,398 1,369 1,656 (3) (4) De-trended series Notes: (1) Brinley Thomas, Migration and Economic Growth, Cambridge University Press, 1954, p. 288. (2) See text. (3) ϭ(1)/(2)ϫ100. (4) ϭ[(1) – (2)]/(2)ϫ100. 3. It is immediately evident that the former does not smooth out the ﬂuctuations as successfully as the latter. It would, of course, be possible to take an even longer number of years, say 25, but only at the cost of still longer periods at the beginning and end of the series for which there would be no trend value.
When dealing with monthly time series, or other periods of less than a year, it is possible to make separate estimates of the seasonal variations and to separate these from the residual cyclical and irregular ﬂuctuations. Such seasonal adjustment plays no part in any further work in this text, but it is a useful illustration of the way in which historical data – for example a series for birth rates or for agricultural production – can be decomposed into these three elements: long-run trend, recurrent seasonal ﬂuctuations, and residual ﬂuctuations, thus enabling the historian to analyse separately each of these contributions to the overall change in the series.
A. ), Nineteenth-Century Society, Essays in the Use of Quantitative Methods for the Study of Social Data, Cambridge University Press, 1972, pp. 146–90, is an excellent discussion of sampling procedures in an historical context. It is not necessary to know any more about the constant e, but for those who are curious it is equal to the limiting value of the exponential expression 1ϩ 5 6 7 1 n n as n approaches inﬁnity. 71815, and taking higher values of n will not change the ﬁrst three decimal places.